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Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: Week 2

For all the great match-ups and lines in week 1, week 2 brings the exact opposite. One big stink fest. While SEC fas might complain that week 2 is everything wrong with college football scheduling, sports books would tell you that this is why vegas lines were created. Manufacturing interest where there is none. Don’t let a terrible week 2 lineup prevent you from going on a heater.

Week 1 was a break even week for me as I went 5-5. A couple no-shows kept me out of the money. I’m looking at you, Tigers (Clemson and LSU). This week there are some big lines that will be tough to decipher but let’s give it a go.

Nicholls at #9 Georgia (NL)

No line on this one for good reason, it should be a bloodbath. This game is a great opportunity to really settle Jacob Eason in before an SEC road game next week at Mizzou. Man, did he show some flashes last week going 8-12, 131, and a TD. The offense sure looked to have improved body language when he was out there too.

My pick: Dogs big 49-7

Prairie View at #20 Texas A&M (NL)

The Aggies get a glorified scrimmage a week before their SEC road opener at Auburn. Even though this game is a breeze, there is still plenty to work on. The defense looked to be the best they’ve had under Sumlin. Myles Garrett single handily can disrupt a gameplay and he showed that again last week. The Aggies still need to iron out some issues on offense. Trevor Knight looked very average. Let’s see if Sumlin really lets him throw it around and get loose in the offense.

My pick: Aggies 59-0

Western Kentucky at #1 Alabama (-29.5)

This is a game where Bama can pick their score and any line could be covered. I think we really have to take a close look at Bama and Nick Saban as far as strategy heading in to the big match-up with Ole Miss next week. Last year the week before the Rebs, Saban beat MTSU 37-10 in a game he could have won by 100. He plays ultra conservative in the games so he can coach hard the whole game, keeping his guys engaged. I like Bama to cruise but I see a conservative game-plan and some forward thinking strategy from Saban.

My pick: Tide 35-7

Kentucky at Florida (-16)

Last week saw Florida struggle a bit vs a lesser opponent and Kentucky absolutely blow yet another game under Stoops. I think Stoops might have lost his program last week. Luke Del Rio looked pretty good last week and I expect him to settle in more this week. This game is in the Swamp and the Gators have won 29 straight vs Kentucky. An early score by Florida and I can see Kentucky players checking out.

My pick: Gators 34-14

Wofford at #19 Ole Miss (NL)

The Rebs get a glorified walk-through the week before Bama. This game is all about getting that young secondary reps but I don’t know how much good they’ll get out of facing an option team. The key for the Rebs is no injuries. Get rested before the game that defines the season. I expect the Rebs to run it a lot more and Wofford will run it damn near every play. I say all that to say, I expect a quick game with less scoring than one would expect.

My pick: Rebs 42-7

MTSU at Vandy (-5)

We are at week 2 and I think this week determines Derek Mason’s fate. The loss in week 1 derailed any visions of even a 5 win season and a loss this week puts you back at year 1 win totals (3). MTSU played this game very close last year and make no mistake, this is their Super Bowl. I think this is an incredibly close game any way you cut it. MTSU got 55 points last week, albeit vs Bama A&M, and QB Brent Stockstill looked really good. I’m going to go out on a limb and call for the upset here. Mason just cannot coach offense.

My pick: Blue Raiders 17-14

Arkansas at #15 TCU (-7)

Last week I was unimpressed with the Hogs offense and the Horned Frog defense. That puts a weakness on weakness match-up that will go a long way in deciding this game. I’ll be quick here. I like the odds of Gary Patterson stopping the Arkansas offense more than I like the Arkansas defense stopping an offense that scored 59 last week. I think this game will be tight and relatively high-scoring but I like the Horned Frogs at home.

My pick: TCU 38-28

South Carolina at MSU (-6.5)

You could make a strong argument that after 1 week of football that this game features the 2 worst offenses and QBs in the SEC. When you look at defenses, MSU gave up 21 to USA and SC gave up 10 to Vandy. You have to thinkĀ this will be a low scoring game and I just don’t know where to go. MSU being at home and playing a must-win for Dan Mullen leads me to believe they’ll get this game but If I see Damian Williams for the majority of the game with Brandon Holloway running dive plays, my pick will go out the window and my drinks will grow to doubles.

My pick: MSU 21-13

Jacksonville State at #21 LSU (NL)

I know this is a shocker but LSU is still LSU and Les Miles still cannot coach offense. This game is a snooze fest where I expect Fournette to get his 20 carries, Guice will get more work this week, and they’ll let Harris throw a bit more to get his confidence up before SEC play. LSU will look better on offense this week but it’s 100% based on the opponent.

My pick: Tigahs 45-14

Arkansas State at Auburn (-20)

ASU lost to a really good Toldeo team last week and looked pretty bad in the process. I think that loss helped push this line too far. The Tigers played really well last week vs Clemson but I don’t think they get up for this one. Last week was a huge opener and next week is SEC play. Sandwiched in the middle is the classic trap game. I think Sean White does enough to get the win but I don’t think its a blowout because (A) lack of emotion and (B) The Auburn offense just isn’t that good.

My pick: Auburn 30-13

E Michigan at Mizzou (-25)

The first thing we have to get across is that Eastern Michigan is a bad football team. Yes I know they hung 61 points of MS Valley last week but that’s like getting excited because you correctly executed heating a hungry man microwavable dinner. Mizzou played a real opponent in week 1 so they have a better idea what they have and shocker, no offense again. I’m shocked to see this line at 25 considering the last year they scored over 25 points vs a FBS school only once. This year is essentially the same staff, same team, and same QB. Good luck with that.

My pick: Mizzou 14-13

Va Tech at #17 Tennessee (-11)

If last week was any indication, this will be one of the best, bad football games this week. It seems like a lot of people seem to think that the Vols just had a bad game and this week will be back to the big-time but I have a hard time believing that. I think there are issues on that team that will continue to show up. In a game where both teams looked awful in week 1, you have to go to the coaches. I think Justin Fuente is an exponentially better coach than Butch and his team will improve more in a week. Is that enough to win? Probably not but I think they keep it very close making 11 points too many.

My pick: Vols 28-20

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